Generally Eclectic
Global Warming and Canada: Getting to Zero by 2060
Introduction

This study takes as given that:

It addresses the question how will Canada reduce its emissions.

Current discussions address the short-term measures (e.g. carbon taxes, cap and trade) that could lead to long-term reduction in emissions. This study offers an alternative. It starts with where Canada needs to get (a zero-emission future), and addresses how to get there from now. The underlying premise is: "If you do not know where you are going, any road will get you there."

The goal is zero emissions. Any goal short of zero emissions increases greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and adds to warming.

The target year is 2060 – a little more than forty years into the future. Forty years is sufficiently long for:

The approach is to take a sector-by-sector look at where Canada is currently emitting greenhouse gases, to identify the measures needed to reduce these emissions to zero in each sector, and to estimate the effect of these measures by 2060.

The measures needed to reduce emissions to zero will include:

Chapter 1: Canada's Emissions

Although Canadians make up about 0.5 percent of the world population, their greenhouse gas emissions account for 2.0 percent of the world total.

Emissions go beyond fossil fuels. Emissions occur across the sectors. Some sectors have been able to reduce emissions from 1990 level.

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions by Sector
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 118,460 20.1%
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport 105,840 171,600 24.6% 65,760 62.1%
Electricity and Heat Generation 93,600 88,300 12.7% -5,300 -5.7%
Stationary Combustion Sources excluding electricity & heat generation, fossil fuel production 129,310 116,770 16.7% -12,540 -9.7%
Road and Off-Road Transportation 120,563 170,012 24.4% 49,449 41.0%
Aviation (Domestic) 7,100 6,100 0.9% -1,000 -14.1%
Railways 7,000 7,600 1.1% 600 8.6%
Marine (Domestic) 5,000 5,800 0.8% 800 16.0%
Industrial Processes 55,990 56,621 8.1% 631 1.1%
Solvent and Other Product Use 180 310 0.0% 130 72.2%
Agriculture 47,100 54,130 7.8% 7,030 14.9%
Waste 18,570 20,670 3.0% 2,100 11.3%
Aviation (International) 6,100 9,100 1.3% 3,000 49.2%
Marine (International) 3,100 1,700 0.2% -1,400 -45.2%

Action is needed in all sectors to reduce emissions to zero. No sector is exempt from the need to eliminate emissions.

Chapter 2: Fossil Fuels

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Fossil Fuels
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total - All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport 105,840 171,600 24.6% 65,760 62.1%
Fossil Fuel Production -Stationary Combustion Source 34,000 47,000 6.7% 13,000 38.2%
Fugitives - Venting 20,000 30,000 4.3% 10,000 50.0%
Fugitives - Natural Gas 11,000 19,000 2.7% 8,000 72.7%
Petroleum Refining - Stationary Combustion Source 16,800 16,800 2.4% 0 0.0%
Pipelines 6,850 5,700 0.8% -1,150 -16.8%
Fugitives - Oil 4,200 6,500 0.9% 2,300 54.8%
Fugitives - Flaring 4,400 4,700 0.7% 300 6.8%
Fugitives - Coal Mining 2,000 1,000 0.1% -1,000 -50.0%
Mining & Oil/Gas Extraction -Stationary Comb. Source 6,590 40,900 5.9% 34,310 520.6%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Fossil Fuels
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport 171,600 5,512 Sector Total
Fossil Fuel Production - Stationary Combustion Source 47,000 0 Current emissions times zero, as electricity replaces fossil fuels to power production facilities
Fugitives - Venting 30,000 366 Current emissions times12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 10 percent representing the residual after improvements to reduce venting.
Fugitives - Natural Gas 19,000 1,159 Current emissions times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 50 percent representing the residual after improvements to prevent fugitive emissions.
Petroleum Refining - Stationary Combustion Source 16,800 0 Current emissions times zero, as electricity replaces fossil fuels in petroleum refining
Pipelines 5,700 0 Current emissions times zero, as electricity replaces fossil fuels in running pipelines
Fugitives - Oil 6,500 397 Current emissions times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 50 percent representing the residual after improvements to control fugitive emissions
Fugitives - Flaring 4,700 287 Current emissions times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 50 percent for improvements to control flaring.
Fugitives - Coal Mining 1,000 0 Current emissions times zero, as coal mining ends
Mining & Oil/Gas Extraction -Stationary Comb. Source 40,900 3,304 Oil and Gas makes up 50.0 percent of the subsector, based on minimum employment by size of business. Mining excluding coal makes up 44.7 percent, and coal 5.3 percent. Projected emissions equal (a) current emissions times 50.0 percent (oil and gas share) times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities and 7.37 percent for non-energy use) times 50 percent representing the residual after improvements in emission efficiency in oil/gas production PLUS (b) current emissions times 44.7 percent for the mining excluding coal share times 15 percent representing the residual for non-grid accessible mines (grid accessible mines will use electricity) times 50 percent representing the residual for improvements in emission efficiency in production times 75 percent representing the residual for emissions that are not captured PLUS (c) current emissions time 5.3 percent representing the coal mining share times 0 representing the disappearance of coal mines.

Chapter 3: Electricity and Heat Generation

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Electricity and Heat Generation
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Electricity and Heat Generation 93,600 88,300 12.7% -5,300 -5.7%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Electricity and Heat Generation
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Electricity and Heat Generation 88,300 2,208 Current emissions times 5 percent contingency, as electricity comes almost totally from renewable sources, with natural gas used to address demand spikes times 50 percent for uncaptured emissions when natural gas is used.

Chapter 4: Stationary Combustion Sources

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Stationary Combustion Sources
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Stationary Combustion Sources excl. electricity & heat generation, fossil fuel production 129,310 116,770 16.7% -12,540 -9.7%
Manufacturing Industries 55,850 43,080 6.2% -12,770 -22.9%
Iron and Steel 4,950 5,480 0.8% 530 10.7%
Non-ferrous Metals 3,260 3,250 0.5% -10 -0.3%
Chemical 8,220 10,100 1.4% 1,880 22.9%
Pulp and Paper 14,500 5,890 0.8% -8,610 -59.4%
Cement 3,920 3,960 0.6% 40 1.0%
Other Manufacturing 21,000 14,400 2.1% -6,600 -31.4%
Construction 1,870 1,450 0.2% -420 -22.5%
Commercial & Institutional 25,700 27,800 4.0% 2,100 8.2%
Residential 43,500 40,900 5.9% -2,600 -6.0%
Agriculture & Forestry 2,390 3,540 0.5% 1,150 48.1%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Stationary Combustion Sources
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Stationary Combustion Sources excluding Electricity & Heat Generation and Fossil Fuel Production 116,770 2,919 Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual after 95 percent of current stationary combustion sources get energy from the grid or create their own renewable sources, times 50 percent representing the residual after the remaining emissions are captured.

Chapter 5: Road and Off-Road Transportation

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Road and Off-Road Transportation
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Road and Off-road Transportation 120,563 170,012 24.0% 49,449 41.0%
Road Transportation 96,763 132,412 19.0% 35,649 36.8%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 45,500 38,300 5.5% -7,200 -15.8%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 20,300 41,400 5.9% 21,100 103.9%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 7,440 6,910 1.0% -530 -7.1%
Motorcycles 152 268 0.0% 116 76.3%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 469 824 0.1% 355 75.7%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 702 2,130 0.3% 1,428 203.4%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 20,000 41,700 6.0% 21,700 108.5%
Propane & Natural Gas Vehicles 2,200 880 0.1% -1,320 -60.0%
Off-Road Transportation 23,800 37,600 5.4% 13,800 58.0%
Off-Road Gasoline 7,800 7,600 1.1% -200 -2.6%
Off-Road Diesel 16,000 30,000 4.3% 14,000 87.5%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Road and Off-road Transportation
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Road and Off-Road Transportation 170,012 8,621 Sector Total
Road Transportation 132,412 4,861 Subsector Total
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 38,300 0 Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks 41,400 0 Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles 6,910 691 Current emissions times 10 percent, representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on uses that do not meet the "national priority" test, the increased use of electrified railways, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements, and changes in shipping patterns
Motorcycles 268 0 Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles 824 0 Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered.
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks 2,130 0 Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles 41,700 4,170 Current emissions times 10 percent representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on uses that do not meet the "national priority" test, the increased use of electrified railways, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements, and changes in shipping patterns
Propane & Natural Gas Vehicles 880 0 Current levels times zero as vehicles become battery powered
Off-Road Transportation 37,600 3,760 Subsector Total
Off-Road Gasoline 7,600 760 Current emissions times 10 percent representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on the use of fossil fuels not meeting the "national priority" test, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements.
Off-Road Diesel 30,000 3,000 Current emissions times 10 percent representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on uses that do not meet the "national priority" test, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements.

Chapter 6: Aviation and Marine

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Aviation
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Aviation Domestic 7,100 6,100 0.9% -1,000 -14.1%
Aviation International 6,100 9,100 1.3% 3,000 49.2%
Marine (Domestic) 5,000 5,800 0.8% 800 16.0%
Marine (International) 3,100 1,700 0.2% -1,400 -45.2%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Aviation and Navigation (Marine)
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Aviation (Domestic) 6,100 305 Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual as domestic aviation is limited to national priorities only
Marine (Domestic) 5,800 145 Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual as domestic marine activities become tied to national priorities only times 50 percent for captured emissions
Aviation (International) 9,100 455 Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual as international aviation is limited to national priorities only
Marine (International) 1,700 85 Current emissions time 5 percent representing the residual as international navigation activities become limited to national priorities only times 50 percent for captured emissions

Chapter 7: Railways

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Railways
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Railways 7,000 7,600 1.1% 600 8.6%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emission for 2060: Railways
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Railways 7,600 0 Current emissions times zero as railroads electrify mainlines, use hydrogen power from renewables elsewhere on other lines and batteries for shunting, etc.

Chapter 8: Industrial Processes

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Industrial Processes
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Industrial Processes 55,990 56,621 8.1% 631 1.1%
Mineral Products 8,360 8,360 1.2% 0 0.0%
Cement Production 5,400 6,300 0.9% 900 16.7%
Lime Production 1,760 1,440 0.2% -320 -18.2%
Mineral Product Use 1,200 620 0.1% -580 -48.3%
Chemical Industry 16,620 6,934 1.0% -9,686 -58.3%
Ammonia Production 4,510 5,770 0.8% 1,260 27.9%
Nitric Acid Production 1,000 1,100 0.2% 100 10.0%
Adipic Acid Production 11,000 0 0.0% -11,000 -100.0%
Petrochemical Production 110 64 0.0% -46 -41.8%
Metal Production 22,620 16,327 2.3% -6,293 -27.8%
Iron and Steel Production 10,200 9,840 1.4% -360 -3.5%
Aluminum Production 9,310 6,230 0.9% -3,080 -33.1%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters 3,110 257 0.0% -2,853 -91.7%
Production and Consumption of Halocarbons/SF6 990 8,000 1.1% 7,010 708.1%
Other & Undifferentiated Production 7,400 17,000 2.4% 9,600 129.7%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Industrial Processes
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Industrial Processes 56,621 14,155 Current emissions times 50 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency improves times 50 percent for carbon capture

Chapter 9: Solvent and Other Product Use

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Solvent and Other Product Use
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Solvent and Other Product Use 180 310 0.0% 130 72.2%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Solvent and Other Product Use
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Solvent and Other Product Use 310 78 Current emissions times 25 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency improves and solvents are regulated against national priorities

Chapter 10: Agriculture

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 708,713 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Agriculture 47,100 54,130 7.8% 7,030 14.9%
Enteric Fermentation 16,000 18,000 2.6% 2,000 12.5%
Manure Management 5,700 6,400 0.9% 700 12.3%
Agriculture Soils 25,200 29,700 4.3% 4,500 17.9%
Direct Sources 14,000 17,000 2.4% 3,000 21.4%
Pasture, Range and Paddock Manure 2,200 2,700 0.4% 500 22.7%
Indirect Sources 9,000 10,000 1.4% 1,000 11.1%
Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 200 30 0.0% -170 -85.0%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Agriculture 54,130 2,385 Sector Total
Enteric Fermentation 18,000 900 Current emissions times 5 percent, representing the residual as demand for beef and dairy consumption fall, costs rise because of manure control, switching to non-greenhouse gas meats (farmed fish, chicken), and more emission efficient animal husbandry
Manure Management 6,400 0 Current emissions times zero, as manures are methane-managed like municipal waste
Agriculture Soils 29,700 1,485 Current emissions times 5 percent contingency representing the residual as nitrogen fixation replaces nitrogen fertilizers
Field Burning of Agricultural Residues 30 0 Current emissions times 0, as the practice is disallowed

Chapter 11: Waste

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Waste
Greenhouse Gas Categories 1990 2012 2012 Change 1990-2012
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq % Total 2012 kt CO2 eq % Total Change
Total – All Sectors 590,253 697,913 100.0% 107,660 18.2%
Waste 18,570 20,670 3.0% 2,100 11.3%
Solid Waste Disposal on Land 17,000 19,000 2.7% 2,000 11.8%
Wastewater Handling 830 1,000 0.1% 170 20.5%
Waste Incineration 740 670 0.1% -70 -9.5%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Waste
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Comments
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Waste 20,670 5,395 Sector Total
Solid Waste Disposal on Land 19,000 4,560 Uncaptured emissions (current emissions times 20 percent) PLUS captured emissions (80 percent of current emissions) times 5 percent representing the residual as methane is converted to CO2, which has 5 percent global warming effect compared to methane
Wastewater Handling 1,000 500 Current emissions times 50 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency increases
Waste Incineration 670 335 Current emissions times 50 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency increases

Chapter 12: Conclusions

The Six Percent Solution

Canada should be able to reduce emissions by 2060 to about 5.96 percent of the current level.

Projected Emissions for 2060: Sector Summary
Greenhouse Gas Categories 2012 2060 Projection Reference
kt CO2 eq kt CO2 eq
Total – All Sectors 708,713 42,263 National Total
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport 171,600 5,512 Fossil Fuels
Electricity and Heat Generation 88,300 2,208 Electricity and Heat Generation
Stationary Combustion Sources excluding Electricity & Heat Generation and Fossil Fuel Production 116,770 2,919 Stationary Combustion Sources
Road and Off-Road Transportation 170,012 8,621 Road and Off-road Transportation
Aviation (Domestic) 6,100 305 Aviation Domestic
Railways 7,600 0 Railways
Marine (Domestic) 5,800 145 Marine Domestic
Industrial Processes 56,621 14,155 Industrial Processes
Solvent and Other Product Use 310 78 Solvents
Agriculture 54,130 2,385 Agriculture
Waste 20,670 5,395 Waste
Aviation (International) 9,100 455 Aviation International
Marine (International) 1,700 85 Marine International

Getting greenhouse gas emissions to 6 percent of current levels by 2060 is a good start, but the goal is zero emissions, and the sooner we get there, the better our lives.

Canada in 2060

What will Canada be like in 2060?

It will continue to combust some fossil fuels for energy purposes, but at only about 4.38 percent of the current rate. The oil and gas industry will be function at about 12.20 percent of current levels, thanks to non-energy uses, which currently account for about 7.37 percent of final demand. About 26 percent of the combusted fossil fuels will be captured. Fossil fuels will be combusted primarily in response to national priorities that cannot be addressed in any other way.

Canadians will not be flying much. Flying will be reserved for national priorities, and will occur in propeller-driven aircraft at low altitudes.

Marine travel will be limited to national priorities such as coastal ferries.

Trade will be primarily within the Americas and not transoceanic, because the latter requires the combustion of fossil fuels for the operation of large ships.

The electricity sector will be several times larger than at present, and will rely on a mixture of renewable and nuclear energy sources, combined with high voltage direct current transmission lines and a smart grid. Pressure on electricity grids will be offset to some extent by energy production by households and businesses. Unfortunately, the shores of the great lakes will probably be dotted with wind turbines.

Industries and residences will convert from using fossil fuels to produce heat and electricity to securing the energy either from the electricity grid or from their own renewable sources. Industries should be more efficient at managing fossil fuels, forced in part by regulations over greenhouse gas emissions.

Railways will see rapid growth, but they will have to rely primarily on electricity for main routes, and hydrogen on others. The sector will see rapid expansion, as it replaces aviation and marine and other forms of transportation.

Cars and light trucks will be powered by batteries. Heavy trucks on regular schedules will use hydrogen. Some fossil fuel use is likely to continue where alternatives do not exist and there is a national priority. A by-product will be cleaner air.

Through regulatory pressures to reduce greenhouse gases, industries will not only capture emissions from existing industrial processes, but develop new processes with fewer emissions or new products that do not require emissions. Industrial processes will be the largest emitter of greenhouse gases by 2060.

Emissions from enteric fermentation in animals will approach zero as the demand for animal products falls, farmers are regulated to control emissions, feed regimes are adjusted, and methane producing bacteria in animal guts are reduced or eliminated. Farmers will be forced to manage manure so that methane is either not produced, or is controlled and burned if it is produced. Nitrogen fertilizer use and related emissions will substantially come to an end, with the advent of nitrogen fixation in major crops.

Waste management processes will be improved to substantially reduce organic matter in landfills and to deal with the remaining organic matter in ways that do not produce methane. Where organic matter enters landfills, the methane likely to emerge will be captured and burned.

With the few exceptions listed above, Canadians will be able to keep much of their current lifestyle. The primary casualty will be air travel. New forms of leisure activities will emerge to replace air travel.

The Way Forward

The starting point to a zero-emissions future is legislation prohibiting emissions by individuals, companies and other Canadian entities without a license issued by the Government of Canada, starting in 2060 and authorizing the Government of Canada to issue licenses allowing emissions only for national priorities where there are no alternatives.

The legislation would focus the attention of all on emission reduction, give all parties fair warning about their future, and allow them sufficient time to make whatever adjustments are needed.

In addition to the legislation, the Government of Canada should request all sectors to provide sector-specific plans on how they will comply with the legislation by 2060. Those that are currently emitting greenhouse gases – oil and gas producers, electricity and heat generators, stationary combusters (manufacturers; constructors; commerce, institutional and residential owners; farmers and foresters), road and off-road transporters, railways, aviators, mariners, industrial processors, users of solvents, agriculturalists, waste managers – need to explain how they plan to eliminate their emissions, and what help they need from governments, businesses, citizens and other sources.

The plans will provide the foundation for a partnership between government and all sectors to reduce Canada's emissions. Regarding the plans:

The path forward is likely to involve slow reductions in the short term that will rapidly escalate toward 2060, where the reduction is expected to be around 94 percent from 2012 levels.

It is not sufficient to make a drastic reduction in emissions by 2060. All emissions will add to global warming. Emission reduction work will not end in 2060. In many respects, it will have just started. Beyond 2060, hope lies in revolutionary, new technologies; the continued evolution of existing emission-reducing technologies; marginal improvements of regulatory regimes; and lifestyle changes including doing without and living for the purpose of helping each other.

Those of us alive in 2060 will regret the distant 2060 target, and wish it had been 2050 or sooner. By then, we will realize a lot can be done in a short time where there is a will and focus.