Getting to Zero Emissions
The Canadian Case - Summary

This guide addresses these questions. How could Canada achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emission by 2060? Would there be devastating consequences to our standard of living? Would Canadians be back living in the Stone Age? Where would our energy come from?

It takes as given that global warming is occurring, that humans are playing a major role through activities that release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, that among humans Canadians are contributing more than their fair share of emissions to global warming, and that Canadians will collectively realize that it is in their interest to reduce Canadian emissions even though in the short run a warmer climate may appear beneficial.

As Canadians begin to contemplate drastic emission reductions, what would Canada be like? If Canadians were to end up back in the Stone Age from an aggressive emission reduction strategy, many of us might opt to take our chances with a planet ravaged by global warming, rather than take concrete steps to change our ways. On the other hand, if Canadians were to end up with a standard of living in line with current standards, perhaps many Canadians might make a different choice.

Some things to note about the 2060 target:

• It is a long time, 45 years to be exact, representing for most of us more than a half a lifetime.
• There will be countless new technologies. Some will give us more tools to address global warming than we have now.
• The goal is a drastic reduction by 2060. The path is likely to involve initially low emission reductions that increase at an accelerating rate over time, as emission reduction policies take effect, as new infrastructure is developed, as high emission capital equipment lives out its economic life and is replaced by low emission capital equipment, as Canadians become trained and educated in emission reduction technology and practices, and as Canadians become aware of the seriousness of the problem.

Chapter 1 looks at Canada's greenhouse gas emissions. What are the sources of the emissions? Where do the largest emissions come from?

Chapters 2 to 10 takes a sector-by-sector look at ways to reduce Canada's greenhouse gas emissions. They focus on the technologies that Canada will need to reduce its emissions. Most of the technologies are already known, although some are not yet ready for widespread application.

Chapter 11 estimates Canada's emissions in 2060 through the application of technologies and other measures identified in chapters 2 to 10.

Canada's Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Under the Kyoto Protocol, signatories agreed to track greenhouse gas emissions on a nationally consistent basis. Under this approach, the greenhouse gases to be tracked are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. Emissions from international aviation and international marine are not included. Based on this methodology, the Government of Canada has tracked and reported on emissions of greenhouse gases recognized by the Kyoto Protocol since 1990. Key facts from this inventory include:

• By 2012, Canada's total greenhouse gases were estimated at 699 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents, up 108 megatonnes (18.3 percent) from 1990, when estimated emissions were 591 megatonnes.
• Canada's 2012 emissions were 135 megatonnes above its Kyoto Protocol target of 563 megatonnes of emissions (6 percent below Canada's 1990 baseline level).
• Energy production and consumption rose by 99 megatonnes (20.7 percent) from 1990 to 2012, and accounted for almost all of Canada's emission growth of 108 megatonnes.
• Although Canadians make up about 0.5 percent of the world population, its greenhouse gas emissions account for 2.0 percent of the world total.

Canada's Emission Profile

The table on the following page summarizes Canada's emissions, expressed a kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents, over the period 1990 to 2012.

The table is based on information provided by the Government of Canada to the United Nations. It has been reformatted to present the information in a more useful way. In the reformatting, all the subcomponents from the original data have been preserved, and then added to higher level totals. Subcomponents in the original data do not always add to higher level totals; this accounts for slight inconsistencies between the following tableand government data.

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions by Sector

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	118,460	20.1%
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport	105,840	171,600	24.6%	65,760	62.1%
Electricity and Heat Generation	93,600	88,300	12.7%	-5,300	-5.7%
Stationary Combustion Sources excluding electricity & heat generation, fossil fuel production	129,310	116,770	16.7%	-12,540	-9.7%
Road and Off-Road Transportation	120,563	170,012	24.4%	49,449	41.0%
Aviation (Domestic)	7,100	6,100	0.9%	-1,000	-14.1%
Railways	7,000	7,600	1.1%	600	8.6%
Marine (Domestic)	5,000	5,800	0.8%	800	16.0%
Industrial Processes	55,990	56,621	8.1%	631	1.1%
Solvent and Other Product Use	180	310	0.0%	130	72.2%
Agriculture	47,100	54,130	7.8%	7,030	14.9%
Waste	18,570	20,670	3.0%	2,100	11.3%
Aviation (International)	6,100	9,100	1.3%	3,000	49.2%
Marine (International)	3,100	1,700	0.2%	-1,400	-45.2%

Within Canada's total emissions in 2012:

• The production of fossil fuels accounted for 24.6 percent. If Canada can significantly reduce its use of fossil fuels, then it will not need to produce fossil fuels, and these emissions will disappear.
• Industries producing electricity and heat accounted for 12.7 percent. For the most part, these are electric power generation facilities, powered by natural gas and coal. In a low emission Canada by 2060, the electric power generation facilities will have to be replaced by ones that use nuclear and renewable energy sources.
• Other stationary combustion sources accounted for 16.7 percent. These include residential, commercial and industrial heating facilities. Most of these facilities are already hooked into electric power grids, and could get their heat and electricity through an electric power grid powered by renewable and nuclear sources.
• Road and off road transportation accounted for 24.4 percent. These forms of transportation rely on the fact that fossil fuels, particularly oil, can provide significant amounts of energy relative to their weight in a safe manner, and can be replenished conveniently. A low emission environment will require the improvements in batteries and other energy storage mechanisms to power our vehicles.
• Other forms of transportation accounted for 2.8 percent. These include marine, aviation and railways. A low emission environment by 2060 will see significant changes in these sectors.
• 8.1 percent of emissions were related to industrial processes. These emissions occurred an environment where emission reduction was not always a point of focus. This raises the question what would occur if emission reduction became a point of focus.
• 7.8 percent of emissions were related to agriculture, much of which comes from livestock production and the use of fertilizers. Changes are needed.
• 3.0 percent of emissions were related to waste. Current best practices carried out over 45 years and applied by everyone should make a significant dent.

The Challenge

Science is telling us that we have from 20 to 70 years, give or take a few, to reduce world greenhouse gas emissions to zero. If emissions are not brought near zero, average global temperatures are likely to increase by more than the amount (2ºC above pre-industrial levels) deemed to be manageable. This rise carries with it significant risks of a range of global disasters. The cumulative impact of these disasters is a threat to humanity, and more specifically, to our children and their children.

As a greenhouse gas emitter, Canada can certainly hold its own. Emissions per capita are among the highest of any country. Instead of reducing emissions, Canada is increasing its emissions. If the citizens of any country were to be held accountable by future generations for a climate disaster, those citizens would be Canadians.

How can Canada reduce its emissions to almost zero? Can it do so, without reverting back to a stone-age lifestyle? Can Canada cut emissions while retaining its current standard living? Can it do so with expected population growth? What about jobs?

The answer is yes, for the most part. The technologies that will propel Canada into the future are for the most part known, although not necessarily fully developed and certainly not fully applied. For the details, read on. The following chapters will outline the technologies that could get Canada close to zero emissions by 2060.

Some current activities will disappear or be drastically reduced in a zero emission world.

In an emission-controlled world, the first victim will be the fossil fuel industries. The production, refining and upgrading of fossil fuels, the extraction of fossil fuels from the ground, pipeline transport, and inadvertent emissions through venting, flaring and coal mining account for 24.6 percent of Canada's emissions in 2012. They also accounted for 62.1 percent of Canada's increase in emissions since 1990.

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Fossil Fuels

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total - All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport	105,840	171,600	24.6%	65,760	62.1%
Fossil Fuel Production -Stationary Combustion Source	34,000	47,000	6.7%	13,000	38.2%
Fugitives - Venting	20,000	30,000	4.3%	10,000	50.0%
Fugitives - Natural Gas	11,000	19,000	2.7%	8,000	72.7%
Petroleum Refining - Stationary Combustion Source	16,800	16,800	2.4%	0	0.0%
Pipelines	6,850	5,700	0.8%	-1,150	-16.8%
Fugitives - Oil	4,200	6,500	0.9%	2,300	54.8%
Fugitives - Flaring	4,400	4,700	0.7%	300	6.8%
Fugitives - Coal Mining	2,000	1,000	0.1%	-1,000	-50.0%
Mining & Oil/Gas Extraction -Stationary Comb. Source	6,590	40,900	5.9%	34,310	520.6%

Note the significant increase of 520.6 percent in Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction from Stationary Combustion Sources between 1990 to 2012. As the mining sector has not grown anywhere near that amount, most of the growth would have come from oil and gas extraction, and within that component, we can assume tar sand development was a major contributor.

In the low emission world of 2060, the future for fossil fuels will be limited to national priorities determined by the government and production for non-energy uses. Where fossil fuels are produced, their production will come from emission-efficient sources such as natural gas and perhaps oil over coal and tar sands, and from situations where emissions can be captured, transported and stored and where fugitive emissions are minimized.

National Priorities

These will be determined by governments, based on criteria that include the "public good", the availability of alternatives, and the extent of emissions. Examples may include long distance air travel by national leaders and the operation of long distance ferry services such as to Newfoundland. Other potential national priorities will be noted as we proceed.

Non-energy Use of Fossil Fuels

A portion of the production of fossil fuels goes to the production of plastics, paints, pharmaceuticals, adhesives, lubricants, sealants, and other chemicals, as strands of carbon-based molecules are vaporized and rearranged with the help of various catalysts. In 2012, Canada used 1,152,617 terajoules of fossil fuel production went to non-energy uses, from a total production of 15,628,969 terajoules (7.37 percent).

Efficient Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels are widely used because they store a lot of energy that can be released as and when needed. Fossil fuels can be assessed in terms of energy produced per unit of volume, per unit of weight, as well as emissions. The transportation sector in particular is looking for lots of energy with minimal volumes and weights. Getting to zero by 2060 requires attention to emissions. The table below provides energy information for various fossil fuels.

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Energy Characteristics and Carbon Emissions for Key Fossil Fuels

Fossil Fuel	Specific Energy	Energy Density	Carbon Dioxide Emitted
	Megajoules per Kilogram	Megajoules per Litre	Grams Per Joule	Pounds per 10^6 BTUs
Methane (burned in air)	55.6	0.04	n.a.	n.a.
Natural Gas (burned in air)	53.6	10.00	50.35	117
LPG Propane (burned in air)	49.6	25.30	59.81	139
LPG Butane (burned in air)	49.1	27.70	n.a.	n.a.
Gasoline	46.4	34.20	67.13	156
Diesel Fuel/Residential Heating Oil (burned in air)	46.2	37.30	69.28	161
Jet A Aviation Fuel	42.8	33.00	65.84	153
Anthracite Coal	32.5	72.40	97.68	227
Bitumen Coal	24.0	20.00	88.22	205
Source: Wikipedia

The problem with fossil fuels is that they are ultimately combusted to produce carbon dioxide and other green house gases. In this regard, coals produce lots of emissions relative to the energy produced. Natural gas produces significantly less. In the low emission world of 2060, only those fossil fuels that produce lots of energy with relatively few emissions will continue to be used. This will effectively end the combustion of coal and tar sand products, to be replaced by natural gas and other more efficient alternatives.

Carbon Capture and Storage

The primary hope for the fossil fuel industries is carbon capture and storage. The concept is straight forward. Capture the carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, and store it in the ground forever. The reality is more complicated. The technology is attractive, because so much of the world relies on fossil fuels, particularly coal, to provide electricity. Despite the attractiveness, the technology is a long way from widespread application. The issue gets down to three components: capture, transport and storage.

Capture from Combustion

Approximately 44.21 percent of Canada's emissions come from combustion in stationary sources. This combustion lends itself to carbon capture because the concentrations of CO2 in the post-combustion gases are high. Within the stationary sources, the large scale facilities for electricity generation are the prime targets for carbon capture, because they are large facilities. Electricity and heat generation accounts for about 12.7 percent of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions. Almost all the emissions are in the form of carbon dioxide.

Canada's electricity generation comes primarily from natural gas, although a few provinces have coal generating stations. Older generating plants combust the fuel in air. Newer plants sometimes combust the fuel with water, producing CO2 and hydrogen as byproducts. With the newer plants, the CO2 is more concentrated, and therefore easier to separate from other gases.

The capture process needs to separate the CO2 from these other gases, to reduce the volumes to be stored. Under current methods, flue gases are at high temperatures and low pressures. To separate the CO2, the flue gases are compressed and chilled before passing them through a membrane or solvent that traps CO2. The solvent contains organic chemicals called amines. At low temperatures, CO2 and amines combine. At high temperatures, they separate. The amines react with the CO2 but not the other gases. To extract the CO2 from the amines, the amines are heated, and this releases the CO2 into a controlled area. The capture rate under existing methods is about 85 percent - a rate that is not good enough for a minimal emission world.

New carbon capture technologies are on the horizon.

For example, UCLA researchers have created powders of porous crystal that soak up CO2. The crystals have pores big enough to allow CO2 inside, and small enough to retain them. When loaded with CO2, the crystals release the CO2 when the pressure is reduced. The most efficient crystals soak up 83 times their own volume. The plan is to test the technology in power stations by about 2010.

Researchers at the University of Wyoming have designed a cheap filter that can capture 90 percent or more the CO2. The filter consists of specially prepared carbon pieces about the size of a pinhead. With porous surface, the grains trap and bond with the CO2 in the flue gases at temperatures up to 50ºC, while allowing nitrogen to escape. Heating the carbon pieces to 100°C releases the CO2.

One anticipates that over time, capture processes will become both more efficient in capturing CO2, energy efficient, and less expensive. Even with better capture technologies, there are still problems.

Transportation and Storage of Captured CO2

Storage requires that the CO2 be pressurized, liquefied, and moved to a storage site. Ideally, sites should be near places where the fossil fuels have been combusted. If no suitable sites exist, pipelines need to be built. The need for pipelines increases the cost of carbon capture and storage. It also increases the risk of leaks, which will contribute to global warming, but also pose a risk to people living near the leak. Canada's best storage sites are on the prairies, so Canada may need to develop pipelines from combustion or collection points to the prairie storage sites. This will not be cheap.

Carbon storage underground is not a new idea. Statoil, Norway's state oil company, buries a million tonnes of CO2 annually. It strips CO2 from natural gas from the Sleipner West gas field, and puts it into a sandstone aquifer beneath the seabed. Similar schemes operate at Weyburn Saskatchewan, and In Salah, Algeria. Compared with the volumes of carbon dioxide that need to be stored to preserve the fossil fuel industry, these are small scale operations. The purpose of these projects is to enhance the recovery of fossil fuels, not store carbon dioxide. However, they have demonstrated that well chosen sites can store CO2 effectively.

The best storage sites are at a depth of a kilometer or more, to provide enough pressure to keep CO2 as a supercritical fluid so it is more likely to stay put. The rock has to have enough pores and cracks to hold CO2. It also has to be covered by non-porous, non-cracked rock to provide a leak proof cap. Potential storage sites include:

• Voids left by worked out oil fields. Recent studies show natural CO2 has remained in such sites for 120 million years. Oil and gas fields could hold up to a trillion tonnes of CO2. Canada's sedimentary sites are in the prairies, and off the east coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia.
• Unmineable coal seams, where CO2 could be absorbed in a layer on the surface of the coal.
• Deep porous rocks such as sandstone, capped by a permeable lay of shale or other rock that trap the CO2. Estimated capacity worldwide is 10 trillion tonnes.

Security is an issue with all potential storage sites. CO2 belched from a natural storage area under Lake Nyos in the Cameroon. It created a thick blanket on the surface, asphyxiating 1,700 people. These people died from the release of a relatively small amount of carbon dioxide. A release from a viable storage site of sequestered CO2 through an accident, sabotage or an earthquake would have a much bigger impact. Because of security challenges, local residents are likely to challenge any suggested storage sites.

Slow leakage from a storage site is also concern, since the CO2 needs to be buried forever. Storing CO2 is like storing nuclear waste, except that nuclear radiation diminishes over time, but the problems with CO2 do not.

Various research projects are under way to test the viability of CO2 storage. Tests have been small scale, short-term and for the most part at the best available sites.

To illustrate the types of problems to be resolved, in one case, CO2 was inserted into sandstone formation which once contained oil and now contains brine. The CO2 acidifies the brine, which then dissolves metal oxide minerals in the rock. This could create tunnels, allowing the CO2 to escape.

Responsibility for storage is also an issue. Responsibility has to be maintained forever. Adequate funds need to be set aside to manage the CO2 storage when the CO2 goes into the site. Sufficient money has to be put into a fund and left there so that the interest on the fund will pay for the operation of the storage site. This may not work well.

There is also a need to learn how to manage a site. The understanding of how much CO2 a particular site can take, and how to spot problems, needs to be enhanced.

Carbon capture, transport and storage add to the cost of burning fossil fuels. Estimates put the cost of carbon capture and storage in the range of $30 to $47 per tonne of carbon dioxide. From an energy efficiency perspective, carbon capture and storage will use up 10 to 40 percent of the energy produced by the fossil fuel.

The future of carbon capture and storage does not look promising. It was once highly touted as a way to maintain the fossil fuel industry, particularly with regard to power stations. However, progress has been slow.

In September 2007, Thomas Kuhn of the Edison Electric Institute, which represents most American power generators, half of which use coal, told a House Select Committee that commercial deployment of carbon capture and storage from large coal stations will require 25 years of research and development, and cost $20 billion. Shell does not see widespread use of this technology until 2060. This is too late for our goal for emission reduction.

Without carbon capture and storage on a significant scale, the future of the fossil fuel industry is bleak.

Fugitive Emissions

Fugitive emissions from fossil fuels are the intentional or unintentional releases of greenhouse gases from the production, processing, transmission, storage and delivery of fossil fuels. They include released gases that are combusted before disposal (e.g. flaring of natural gases at oil and gas production and processing facilities). Sources include are coal mining and handling, and activities related to the oil and natural gas industry.

To the extent that the production of oil and gas continues, there will be a need to substantially reduce fugitive emissions. About 8.7 percent of Canada's emissions come from fugitive emissions from fossil fuel industries.

Over the period 1990 to 2012, factors affecting fugitive emissions included:

• The closing of coal mines in eastern Canada.
• Increased production of natural gas, heavy oil, crude bitumen and synthetic crude oil.
• The shift in production from easily removal fossil fuels to more energy and emission intensive forms of oil.
• The increased use of multi-stage fracturing during well-completion.
• The introduction in Alberta of regulations to reduce flaring and venting in the oil and gas industry in 1999.
• The introduction in 2006 of leak detection and repair best management practices in Alberta regulations.

By 2060, much stricter regulation of fugitive emissions will be required for whatever production of fossil fuels there is. Presumably, the technology for identifying and dealing with fugitive emissions will have improved.

Getting to Zero Emissions by 2060

Getting to zero emissions by 2060 means:

• The combustion of fossil fuels will substantially but not completely end. Some combustion will continue for national priorities (government services, remote mine sites, ferry services, essential air travel), where no alternatives exist. These emissions are estimated at about 4.83 percent of current emissions. Some extraction, processing and distribution of fossil fuels for purposes other than burning (e.g. plastics) will continue. Currently, these activities accound for around 7.37 percent of total production. Exports particularly to the United States will disappear, since the other countries will be abandoning the combustion of fossil fuels. Canada's fossil fuel reserves will be sufficient to meet Canada's needs for the foreseeable future, primarily because removal from reserves will diminish.
• To the extent that fossil fuels continue to be used, the focus will be on fossil fuels that produce the most energy per emission. This means natural gas and conventional oil will be used, and tar sand and coal extraction will not.
• There will be some carbon storage facilities available, and where feasible, those who combust fossil fuels for national priorities will be required to capture, ship to a storage location and store CO₂. At the same time, those projects allowed to operate in 2060 will be selected in part because of their capacity for carbon capture and storage.
• Carbon capture and storage will not be the vehicle that allows current levels of combustion to continue into the future for several reasons:
  • Current capture technologies do not capture all the CO₂. Some emissions remain even where there is the desire for carbon capture and storage, so carbon capture and storage are only a partial solution to the greenhouse gas problems.
  • There are storage issues. The amount of CO₂ to be stored is huge, yet there remain questions about where it will be stored, how will it be stored, whether the storage is safe, and whether communities will accept storage in their neighbourhoods.
  • There are transportation issues related to getting the CO₂ from the place of combustion to the place of storage.
  • Carbon capture and storage increases the cost of using fossil fuels, and makes other technologies, particularly renewable technologies cost competitive. Put another way, the energy consumed in carbon capture and storage uses up a significant portion of the energy in the fossil fuel, thereby reducing the emission efficiency of the fossil fuel as a net source of energy.
  • Even if all the outstanding issues related to carbon capture and storage are answered eventually, it is unlikely that the questions will be answered and facilities built in time to address the greenhouse gas crisis. Other technologies are closer to implementation and will have occupied the field by the time carbon capture and storage is ready.
• Where extraction, processing and distribution do occur, there will be strict regulations to eliminate all emissions that are incidental. The current tolerance of unnecessary fugitive emissions will end.
• In addition, the selection of drill sites will focus on sites that are less likely to lead to fugitive emissions. Furthermore, there will be strict monitoring of sites to detect and stop fugitive emissions. The unpredictable nature of fracking may be problematic for the technology.
• Where oil and gas are extracted, refined and transported, the energy source will be electricity and not oil and gas combustion.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Fossil Fuels

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport	171,600	5,512	Sector Total
Fossil Fuel Production - Stationary Combustion Source	47,000	0	Current emissions times zero, as electricity replaces fossil fuels to power production facilities
Fugitives - Venting	30,000	366	Current emissions times12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 10 percent representing the residual after improvements to reduce venting.
Fugitives - Natural Gas	19,000	1,159	Current emissions times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 50 percent representing the residual after improvements to prevent fugitive emissions.
Petroleum Refining - Stationary Combustion Source	16,800	0	Current emissions times zero, as electricity replaces fossil fuels in petroleum refining
Pipelines	5,700	0	Current emissions times zero, as electricity replaces fossil fuels in running pipelines
Fugitives - Oil	6,500	397	Current emissions times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 50 percent representing the residual after improvements to control fugitive emissions
Fugitives - Flaring	4,700	287	Current emissions times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (7.37 percent for non-energy uses and calculated 4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities) times 50 percent for improvements to control flaring.
Fugitives - Coal Mining	1,000	0	Current emissions times zero, as coal mining ends
Mining & Oil/Gas Extraction -Stationary Comb. Source	40,900	3,304	Oil and Gas makes up 50.0 percent of the subsector, based on minimum employment by size of business. Mining excluding coal makes up 44.7 percent, and coal 5.3 percent. Projected emissions equal (a) current emissions times 50.0 percent (oil and gas share) times 12.20 percent representing the residual 2060 demand (4.83 percent for combustion for national energy priorities and 7.37 percent for non-energy use) times 50 percent representing the residual after improvements in emission efficiency in oil/gas production PLUS (b) current emissions times 44.7 percent for the mining excluding coal share times 15 percent representing the residual for non-grid accessible mines (grid accessible mines will use electricity) times 50 percent representing the residual for improvements in emission efficiency in production times 75 percent representing the residual for emissions that are not captured PLUS (c) current emissions time 5.3 percent representing the coal mining share times 0 representing the disappearance of coal mines.

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Electricity and Heat Generation

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Electricity and Heat Generation	93,600	88,300	12.7%	-5,300	-5.7%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• An expansion of electricity production from renewable sources by about 3.76 times over the current level to replace the energy currently produced from fossil fuels.
• An electricity system based on:
  • A diverse array of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, water, nuclear and geothermal energy sources.
  • The use of a diverse array of electricity storage systems (pumped hydro storage, hydro storage, batteries) at various levels (electricity producers, industry, households).
  • Super grids covering all of Canada and between Canada and the United States, and using high voltage direct current transmission lines to move power around the continent in response to supply and demand.
  • The operation of smart grids that increase efficiency.
• The decreasing reliance by households and industry on the grid as an energy source, driven by the desire for control over energy plus new technologies that facilitate the local production and utilization of renewable energy.
• The use of fossil fuels only for emergencies to manage peak loads and to address periods when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow over a wide area.
• The capture of the fossil fuels that are used.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Electricity and Heat Generation

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Electricity and Heat Generation	88,300	2,208	Current emissions times 5 percent contingency, as electricity comes almost totally from renewable sources, with natural gas used to address demand spikes times 50 percent for uncaptured emissions when natural gas is used.

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Stationary Combustion Sources

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Stationary Combustion Sources excl. electricity & heat generation, fossil fuel production	129,310	116,770	16.7%	-12,540	-9.7%
Manufacturing Industries	55,850	43,080	6.2%	-12,770	-22.9%
Iron and Steel	4,950	5,480	0.8%	530	10.7%
Non-ferrous Metals	3,260	3,250	0.5%	-10	-0.3%
Chemical	8,220	10,100	1.4%	1,880	22.9%
Pulp and Paper	14,500	5,890	0.8%	-8,610	-59.4%
Cement	3,920	3,960	0.6%	40	1.0%
Other Manufacturing	21,000	14,400	2.1%	-6,600	-31.4%
Construction	1,870	1,450	0.2%	-420	-22.5%
Commercial & Institutional	25,700	27,800	4.0%	2,100	8.2%
Residential	43,500	40,900	5.9%	-2,600	-6.0%
Agriculture & Forestry	2,390	3,540	0.5%	1,150	48.1%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• Where there is access to the grid, the conversion of industrial, residential, commercial and institutional facilities so that they stop using fossil fuels in stationary combustion equipment and start meeting their energy needs from the electricity grid, and non-grid renewable sources. Most current industrial, residential, commercial and institutional facilities have access to the grid.
• Recognizing that while this conversion may appear onerous, current emitters have over 40 years to carry out the conversion, a period sufficiently long that all combustion equipment will wear out and have to be replaced anyway, and buildings will need to be retrofitted.
• Where there is no access to the grid (e.g. remote industries, particularly mines and mineral refining operations; remote communities; rural homes), allowing the continuation of combustion of fossil fuels, subject to regulation and where feasible, carbon capture.
• Recognizing the considerable scope for the reduction in energy use, particularly in the residential and transportation sectors.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Stationary Combustion Sources

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Stationary Combustion Sources excluding Electricity & Heat Generation and Fossil Fuel Production	116,770	2,919	Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual after 95 percent of current stationary combustion sources get energy from the grid or create their own renewable sources, times 50 percent representing the residual after the remaining emissions are captured.

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Road and Off-Road Transportation

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Road and Off-road Transportation	120,563	170,012	24.0%	49,449	41.0%
Road Transportation	96,763	132,412	19.0%	35,649	36.8%
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles	45,500	38,300	5.5%	-7,200	-15.8%
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks	20,300	41,400	5.9%	21,100	103.9%
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles	7,440	6,910	1.0%	-530	-7.1%
Motorcycles	152	268	0.0%	116	76.3%
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles	469	824	0.1%	355	75.7%
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks	702	2,130	0.3%	1,428	203.4%
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles	20,000	41,700	6.0%	21,700	108.5%
Propane & Natural Gas Vehicles	2,200	880	0.1%	-1,320	-60.0%
Off-Road Transportation	23,800	37,600	5.4%	13,800	58.0%
Off-Road Gasoline	7,800	7,600	1.1%	-200	-2.6%
Off-Road Diesel	16,000	30,000	4.3%	14,000	87.5%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• Vehicles powered by the combustion of fossil fuels will be substantially off the roads. Vehicles propelled by the combustion of fossil fuels will be reserved for priority situations for which there are no available alternatives. High priority non-routine long-distance trucking in remote locations comes to mind.
• Almost all consumer vehicles and light commercial vehicles will be battery-powered.
• Apart from propulsion systems, these vehicles will have other attributes to make them energy efficient (e.g. light-weight materials).
• Various initiatives will be established to reduce the amount of driving. Whatever driving there is will occur at energy efficient speeds.
• Biofuels and hydrogen will no longer be under serious consideration for consumer and light commercial vehicles.
• The demand for heavy duty road transportation will fall considerably, as rail alternatives in particular become more attractive, global trade patterns change, and 3-dimensional printing reduces the need to ship manufactured goods.
• Hydrogen-based technologies are likely to find a role in heavy duty road transportation where a robust, mobile source of energy is needed and distribution is simple. This includes trucking along fixed routes. Refueling points can be established at key points along the routes, with local production facilities based on windmills, solar panels and the like situated near the distribution points.
• Some use of fossil fuels for energy efficient heavy-duty road transportation may continue for national priorities.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Road and Off-road Transportation

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Road and Off-Road Transportation	170,012	8,621	Sector Total
Road Transportation	132,412	4,861	Subsector Total
Light-Duty Gasoline Vehicles	38,300	0	Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Light-Duty Gasoline Trucks	41,400	0	Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Heavy-Duty Gasoline Vehicles	6,910	691	Current emissions times 10 percent, representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on uses that do not meet the "national priority" test, the increased use of electrified railways, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements, and changes in shipping patterns
Motorcycles	268	0	Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Light-Duty Diesel Vehicles	824	0	Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered.
Light-Duty Diesel Trucks	2,130	0	Current emissions times zero, as vehicles become battery powered
Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles	41,700	4,170	Current emissions times 10 percent representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on uses that do not meet the "national priority" test, the increased use of electrified railways, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements, and changes in shipping patterns
Propane & Natural Gas Vehicles	880	0	Current levels times zero as vehicles become battery powered
Off-Road Transportation	37,600	3,760	Subsector Total
Off-Road Gasoline	7,600	760	Current emissions times 10 percent representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on the use of fossil fuels not meeting the "national priority" test, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements.
Off-Road Diesel	30,000	3,000	Current emissions times 10 percent representing the residual after regulatory prohibitions on uses that do not meet the "national priority" test, use of hydrogen power, emission efficiency improvements.

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Aviation

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Aviation Domestic	7,100	6,100	0.9%	-1,000	-14.1%
Aviation International	6,100	9,100	1.3%	3,000	49.2%
Marine (Domestic)	5,000	5,800	0.8%	800	16.0%
Marine (International)	3,100	1,700	0.2%	-1,400	-45.2%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• International and domestic aviation and marine will substantially, but not completely, come to an end, because aviation and marine rely on the combustion of fossil fuels and carbon capture is not usually feasible.
• What aviation remains will be limited to national priorities (defense, government priorities, services to rural communities, strategic industrial purposes).
• The more fuel-efficient propeller-driven aircraft will replace jets. Air travel will be only for long-haul routes, because there will be viable alternatives such as railways on short-haul routes.
• Alternatives such as airships are unlikely to replace a significant amount of aviation based on fossil fuels.
• Domestic marine shipping will generally be replaced by:
  • Railways and trucking for inland shipping.
  • Battery powered and sail boats for inshore and inland fishing.
  • Hydrogen powered ferries for most routes, and for priority routes, fossil fuel powered ferries combined with the capture of CO ₂ emissions.
• International shipping based on fossil fuels will be substantially eliminated. The alternatives (nuclear, sail powered, hydrogen powered) will fill the gap only on a minor basis. Some fossil fuel consumption and related emissions may continue for national priorities (strategic exports and imports), but emissions of CO₂ will be regulated and subject to carbon capture wherever practical.
• Globalization will be redefined. There will be substantially fewer imports from, and exports to sources outside the Americas. Imports and exports will be restricted to places that can be reached without international shipping. In Canada’s case, this means the United States, Mexico, Central and South America, and the Caribbean. Exports of raw materials to Asia and Europe will disappear, but so will imports. Some economic doors, particularly the export of natural resources, will close, but others, notably manufacturing, will re-open. Trade within the Americas will continue, and will be based on electrified railways and hydrogen powered trucks. The Americas will need to become self-sufficient. Competition will be limited to competitors from the Americas.
• For manufactured products, 3-dimensional printing close to buyers will replace manufacture in distant countries, shipping to Canadian ports, and transportation within Canada by trucks or rail.
• Multinational corporations that carry out significant trade between subsidiaries in different continents will find this raison d’être no longer relevant. They will shift their focus to the exchange of ideas on patents, technologies, and operating procedures.
• Intercontinental business will be conducted through electronic means – video conferencing, email, etc. Without international marine and aviation, globalization as we know it will come to an end, but undoubtedly will evolve into different forms.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Aviation and Marine

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Aviation (Domestic)	6,100	305	Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual as domestic aviation is limited to national priorities only
Marine (Domestic)	5,800	145	Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual as domestic marine activities become tied to national priorities only times 50 percent for captured emissions
Aviation (International)	9,100	455	Current emissions times 5 percent representing the residual as international aviation is limited to national priorities only
Marine (International)	1,700	85	Current emissions time 5 percent representing the residual as international navigation activities become limited to national priorities only times 50 percent for captured emissions

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Railways

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Railways	7,000	7,600	1.1%	600	8.6%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• Getting rid of engines based on fossil fuels.
• Electrifying the main lines and using electric engines.
• For other routes, using hydrogen engines, perhaps supplied by hydrogen produced at refueling points based on wind or solar power.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emission for 2060: Railways

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Railways	7,600	0	Current emissions times zero as railroads electrify mainlines, use hydrogen power from renewables elsewhere on other lines and batteries for shunting, etc.

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Industrial Processes

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Industrial Processes	55,990	56,621	8.1%	631	1.1%
Mineral Products	8,360	8,360	1.2%	0	0.0%
Cement Production	5,400	6,300	0.9%	900	16.7%
Lime Production	1,760	1,440	0.2%	-320	-18.2%
Mineral Product Use	1,200	620	0.1%	-580	-48.3%
Chemical Industry	16,620	6,934	1.0%	-9,686	-58.3%
Ammonia Production	4,510	5,770	0.8%	1,260	27.9%
Nitric Acid Production	1,000	1,100	0.2%	100	10.0%
Adipic Acid Production	11,000	0	0.0%	-11,000	-100.0%
Petrochemical Production	110	64	0.0%	-46	-41.8%
Metal Production	22,620	16,327	2.3%	-6,293	-27.8%
Iron and Steel Production	10,200	9,840	1.4%	-360	-3.5%
Aluminum Production	9,310	6,230	0.9%	-3,080	-33.1%
SF6 Used in Magnesium Smelters and Casters	3,110	257	0.0%	-2,853	-91.7%
Production and Consumption of Halocarbons/SF6	990	8,000	1.1%	7,010	708.1%
Other & Undifferentiated Production	7,400	17,000	2.4%	9,600	129.7%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• Significant reductions on industrial processes because industries will:
  • Be regulated for greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Respond to regulations and other incentives by carrying out research, development and related investments to find ways to produce existing products with no or less emissions, to develop new products that can be produced without emissions, and to find ways to capture emissions in production processes so that they do not enter the atmosphere.
• A continuation of limited emissions where the foregoing does not work, the product is essential, and there are no alternatives.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Industrial Processes

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Industrial Processes	56,621	14,155	Current emissions times 50 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency improves times 50 percent for carbon capture

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Solvent and Other Product Use

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Solvent and Other Product Use	180	310	0.0%	130	72.2%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• Monitoring all solvents for their greenhouse gas effects.
• Prohibiting the production, import and use of solvents that have greenhouse gas effects unless authorized by the government in the case of national priorities that cannot otherwise be addressed.
• Supporting the development of solvents that meet Canadian needs and that do not have greenhouse gas effects.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Solvent and Other Product Use

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Solvent and Other Product Use	310	78	Current emissions times 25 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency improves and solvents are regulated against national priorities

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Agriculture

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	708,713	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Agriculture	47,100	54,130	7.8%	7,030	14.9%
Enteric Fermentation	16,000	18,000	2.6%	2,000	12.5%
Manure Management	5,700	6,400	0.9%	700	12.3%
Agriculture Soils	25,200	29,700	4.3%	4,500	17.9%
Direct Sources	14,000	17,000	2.4%	3,000	21.4%
Pasture, Range and Paddock Manure	2,200	2,700	0.4%	500	22.7%
Indirect Sources	9,000	10,000	1.4%	1,000	11.1%
Field Burning of Agricultural Residues	200	30	0.0%	-170	-85.0%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• Reduced meat and dairy consumption.
• Changes in the types of meats consumed (chicken versus beef and lamb).
• Vaccines, changes in feed, and other mechanisms to reduce the methanogens in the digestive tracks of livestock, particularly cattle and sheep.
• Manure management for livestock at the same methane-management standard as for human waste.
• The introduction of genetically modified crops that can fix nitrogen without the application of nitrogen fertilizers.
• Where nitrogen fixation is impractical, seed inoculation practices instead of broadcast fertilizer, as a more efficient way to deliver nitrogen to plants.
• The development of plants more efficient in taking up nitrogen from fertilizers.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Agriculture

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Agriculture	54,130	2,385	Sector Total
Enteric Fermentation	18,000	900	Current emissions times 5 percent, representing the residual as demand for beef and dairy consumption fall, costs rise because of manure control, switching to non-greenhouse gas meats (farmed fish, chicken), and more emission efficient animal husbandry
Manure Management	6,400	0	Current emissions times zero, as manures are methane-managed like municipal waste
Agriculture Soils	29,700	1,485	Current emissions times 5 percent contingency representing the residual as nitrogen fixation replaces nitrogen fertilizers
Field Burning of Agricultural Residues	30	0	Current emissions times 0, as the practice is disallowed

Past Emissions

Canada’s 1990–2012 Green House Gas Emissions: Waste

Greenhouse Gas Categories	1990	2012	2012	Change 1990-2012
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq	% Total 2012	kt CO2 eq	% Total Change
Total – All Sectors	590,253	697,913	100.0%	107,660	18.2%
Waste	18,570	20,670	3.0%	2,100	11.3%
Solid Waste Disposal on Land	17,000	19,000	2.7%	2,000	11.8%
Wastewater Handling	830	1,000	0.1%	170	20.5%
Waste Incineration	740	670	0.1%	-70	-9.5%

Getting to Zero by 2060

Getting to zero by 2060 means:

• Keeping organic waste out of waste sites to the extent possible.
• Where it gets into, or has gotten into, waste sites, collect the methane produced within the site, and:
  • Where possible, use the methane to produce organic compounds. By locking the methane in these compounds, the greenhouse gases are kept out of the atmosphere.
  • Use the methane to produce energy.
  • Ensure that whatever methane remains does not get into the atmosphere by converting the methane to CO2 through burning, since the greenhouse gas effects of CO2 are significantly less.

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions for 2060: Waste

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Comments
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Waste	20,670	5,395	Sector Total
Solid Waste Disposal on Land	19,000	4,560	Uncaptured emissions (current emissions times 20 percent) PLUS captured emissions (80 percent of current emissions) times 5 percent representing the residual as methane is converted to CO2, which has 5 percent global warming effect compared to methane
Wastewater Handling	1,000	500	Current emissions times 50 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency increases
Waste Incineration	670	335	Current emissions times 50 percent representing the residual as emission efficiency increases

The Six Percent Solution

Canada should be able to reduce emissions by 2060 to about 5.96 percent of the current level.

Projected Emissions for 2060: Sector Summary

Greenhouse Gas Categories	2012	2060 Projection	Reference
	kt CO2 eq	kt CO2 eq
Total – All Sectors	708,713	42,263	National Total
Fossil Fuel Production, Fugitives, Transport	171,600	5,512	Fossil Fuels
Electricity and Heat Generation	88,300	2,208	Electricity and Heat Generation
Stationary Combustion Sources excluding Electricity & Heat Generation and Fossil Fuel Production	116,770	2,919	Stationary Combustion Sources
Road and Off-Road Transportation	170,012	8,621	Road and Off-road Transportation
Aviation (Domestic)	6,100	305	Aviation Domestic
Railways	7,600	0	Railways
Marine (Domestic)	5,800	145	Marine Domestic
Industrial Processes	56,621	14,155	Industrial Processes
Solvent and Other Product Use	310	78	Solvents
Agriculture	54,130	2,385	Agriculture
Waste	20,670	5,395	Waste
Aviation (International)	9,100	455	Aviation International
Marine (International)	1,700	85	Marine International

Getting greenhouse gas emissions to 6 percent of current levels by 2060 is a good start, but the goal is zero emissions, and the sooner we get there, the better our lives.

Canada in 2060

What will Canada be like in 2060?

It will continue to combust some fossil fuels for energy purposes, but at only about 4.38 percent of the current rate. The oil and gas industry will be function at about 12.20 percent of current levels, thanks to non-energy uses, which currently account for about 7.37 percent of final demand. About 26 percent of the combusted fossil fuels will be captured. Fossil fuels will be combusted primarily in response to national priorities that cannot be addressed in any other way.

Canadians will not be flying much. Flying will be reserved for national priorities, and will occur in propeller-driven aircraft at low altitudes.

Marine travel will be limited to national priorities such as coastal ferries.

Trade will be primarily within the Americas and not transoceanic, because the latter requires the combustion of fossil fuels for the operation of large ships.

The electricity sector will be several times larger than at present, and will rely on a mixture of renewable and nuclear energy sources, combined with high voltage direct current transmission lines and a smart grid. Pressure on electricity grids will be offset to some extent by energy production by households and businesses. Unfortunately, the shores of the great lakes will probably be dotted with wind turbines.

Industries and residences will convert from using fossil fuels to produce heat and electricity to securing the energy either from the electricity grid or from their own renewable sources. Industries should be more efficient at managing fossil fuels, forced in part by regulations over greenhouse gas emissions.

Railways will see rapid growth, but they will have to rely primarily on electricity for main routes, and hydrogen on others. The sector will see rapid expansion, as it replaces aviation and marine and other forms of transportation.

Cars and light trucks will be powered by batteries. Heavy trucks on regular schedules will use hydrogen. Some fossil fuel use is likely to continue where alternatives do not exist and there is a national priority. A by-product will be cleaner air.

Through regulatory pressures to reduce greenhouse gases, industries will not only capture emissions from existing industrial processes, but develop new processes with fewer emissions or new products that do not require emissions. Industrial processes will be the largest emitter of greenhouse gases by 2060.

Emissions from enteric fermentation in animals will approach zero as the demand for animal products falls, farmers are regulated to control emissions, feed regimes are adjusted, and methane producing bacteria in animal guts are reduced or eliminated. Farmers will be forced to manage manure so that methane is either not produced, or is controlled and burned if it is produced. Nitrogen fertilizer use and related emissions will substantially come to an end, with the advent of nitrogen fixation in major crops.

Waste management processes will be improved to substantially reduce organic matter in landfills and to deal with the remaining organic matter in ways that do not produce methane. Where organic matter enters landfills, the methane likely to emerge will be captured and burned.

With the few exceptions listed above, Canadians will be able to keep much of their current lifestyle. The primary casualty will be air travel. New forms of leisure activities will emerge to replace air travel.

The Way Forward

The starting point to a zero-emissions future is legislation prohibiting emissions by individuals, companies and other Canadian entities without a license issued by the Government of Canada, starting in 2060 and authorizing the Government of Canada to issue licenses allowing emissions only for national priorities where there are no alternatives.

The legislation would focus the attention of all on emission reduction, give all parties fair warning about their future, and allow them sufficient time to make whatever adjustments are needed.

In addition to the legislation, the Government of Canada should request all sectors to provide sector-specific plans on how they will comply with the legislation by 2060. Those that are currently emitting greenhouse gases – oil and gas producers, electricity and heat generators, stationary combusters (manufacturers; constructors; commerce, institutional and residential owners; farmers and foresters), road and off-road transporters, railways, aviators, mariners, industrial processors, users of solvents, agriculturalists, waste managers – need to explain how they plan to eliminate their emissions, and what help they need from governments, businesses, citizens and other sources.

The plans will provide the foundation for a partnership between government and all sectors to reduce Canada's emissions. Regarding the plans:

• The plans may not be followed when the time comes, but those that have plans to do better than those that do not.
• All sectors need to be involved, and to take action. It is neither fair nor sufficient to focus attention on producers and combusters of fossil fuels.
• The role of governments is to support emitters with their emission reduction plans.
• Sectors that do not produce plans can expect neither sympathy nor support from others.

The path forward is likely to involve slow reductions in the short term that will rapidly escalate toward 2060, where the reduction is expected to be around 94 percent from 2012 levels.

It is not sufficient to make a drastic reduction in emissions by 2060. All emissions will add to global warming. Emission reduction work will not end in 2060. In many respects, it will have just started. Beyond 2060, hope lies in revolutionary, new technologies; the continued evolution of existing emission-reducing technologies; marginal improvements of regulatory regimes; and lifestyle changes including doing without and living for the purpose of helping each other.

Those of us alive in 2060 will regret the distant 2060 target, and wish it had been 2050 or sooner. By then, we will realize a lot can be done in a short time where there is a will and focus.